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DTN Midday Grain Comments     09/23 11:08

   Grains Lower at Midday

   Corn trade is 9 to 11 cents lower; beans are 24 to 26 cents lower and wheat 
is 18 to 21 cents lower.

David M. Fiala
DTN Contributing Analyst


   The U.S. stock market is sharply lower with the Dow down 470 points. The 
dollar index is 135 points higher. Interest rate products are weaker. Energies 
are sharply weaker with crude down 4.30. Livestock trade is mostly lower. 
Precious metals are sharply lower with gold $28 lower.


   Corn trade is 9 to 11 cents lower at midday with risk off trade as we head 
towards the weekend with expanding harvest and negative outside markets 
bringing pressure to start; trade worked a little off the early lows. 
Short-term forecasts have the center of the Corn Belt drier with 
higher-than-normal temperatures again into the weekend. The export wire was 
quiet after yesterday's action. Ethanol margins will likely chop along with 
lower driving demand and corn values keeping pressure on for now, with natural 
gas fading a little to add support. Basis will be watched to see how quickly we 
go to harvest footing, and how aggressively the West will bid for corn in the 
deficit areas into early harvest. Some areas are starting to show more 
strength. On the December chart, trade remains below the Upper Bollinger band 
at $7 as the next level up, with the 20-day at $6.78, which we are testing at 


   Soybean trade is 24 to 26 cents lower at midday with trade falling back into 
the lower end of the recent range with risk off action and harvest pressure 
continuing. Meal is $3.50 to $4.50 lower and oil is 225 to 235 points lower. 
South America is moving towards planting preparation with late demand picking 
up ahead of the U.S. export window with the stronger dollar potentially pushing 
that further out and Brazil seeing better rain than Argentina to start. Basis 
will continue to shift towards harvest footing with trade watching to see how 
quickly export shipments pick up into the end of the month with some further 
near-term basis pressure expected into October. The daily wire remained quiet 
again today. On the November soybean chart, trade has the Upper Bollinger Band 
at $15.01 as resistance, and the 20-day at $14.40 which we are below at midday.


   Wheat trade is 21 to 25 cents lower at midday with trade fading back from 
the recent highs with the risk off action, and stronger dollar offsetting 
political and weather concerns for now. Spring wheat harvest should be 
effectively wrapped up, with winter wheat planting expanding with needed rains 
in some of the growing areas. The dollar is at fresh highs after the guidance 
remains for increasing rates with MATIF prices snapping back to the upper end 
of the range on the political concerns before fading in the risk off trade. The 
Kansas City December chart has support at the 20-day at $9.20, and the Upper 
Bollinger band at $9.84 as resistance.

   David Fiala can be reached at dfiala@futuresone.com 

   Follow him on Twitter @davidfiala

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